Scientific and technological foresight of the Republic of Kazakhstan
for the period up to 2020
To conduct foresight in 2011, the initiator and executor of the project was JSC “National Innovation Fund” of the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the head of the work was appointed Shevchenko Elena Valerievna, PhD in Economics.
To conduct scientific and technological foresight in the Republic of Kazakhstan for the period up to 2020, the composition of expert groups in the following priority areas was determined:
- Agro-industrial complex, the head of the expert group is Gaini Toleualievna Sarbasova, Dr. of agricultural sciences.
- Mining and metallurgical complex, head of the expert group Kamberov Irken Murdunovich.
- Information and communication technologies, head of the expert group Kurmangalieva Bikesh Kaidarova.
- Mechanical Engineering, the head of the expert group Lizunov Vasily Nikolaevich.
- Chemistry and Petrochemistry — Chemical Industry, the head of the expert group Dzekunov Viktor Pavlovich, Candidate of Chemical Sciences, Associate Professor.
- Energy Industry, Valery Zhiltsov, head of the expert group.
- Oil and gas industry
Brief information on the results of scientific and technological foresight in the Republic of Kazakhstan for the period up to 2020
| 1. Initiator of the project: | JSC “National Innovation Fund” of the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of RK, 2011 |
| 2. Head of works: | Shevchenko Elena Valerievna, Candidate of Agricultural Sciences. |
3. Composition of expert groups on priority directions
| Priority direction | Head of the expert group | Members of the expert group |
| 1. Agro-industrial complex | Sarbasova Gayni Toleualievna Sarbasova, Ph.D.
| -Uskenov Rashit Bikhitzhanovich, Candidate of Agricultural Sciences, Associate Professor -Nikitin Evgeny Borisovich, Doctor of veterinary sciences -Shaimerdenova Darigash Arynovna, Candidate of Technical Sciences -Idrisov Kanat Zhanabekovich, Candidate of Agricultural Sciences, Associate Professor |
| 2. Mining and metallurgical complex | Kamberov Irken Murdunovich
| Айсаутов Мынжасар Айсаутович, к. т. н. Мухамедиева Сафура Сибагатуллаевна, к. т. н. Рофман Олег Владимирович, Ph.D. Материаловедение |
| 3. Information and communication technologies | Kurmangalieva Bikesh Kaidarovna | -Aysautov Mynzhasar Aysautovich, Ph. Sc. -Mukhamedieva Safura Sibagatullaevna, Ph. Sc. -Rofman Oleg Vladimirovich, Ph.D. Materials Science |
| 4. Mechanical Engineering | Lizunov Vasily Nikolaevich
| —Atekeev Orazken Sadykovich -Aydarbayev Rustam Vladimirovich, Candidate of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor -Dzhamalov Nutpulla Kamalovich, Candidate of Technical Sciences |
| 5. Chemistry and petrochemistry — Chemical industry | Victor Pavlovich Dzekunov, Candidate of Chemical Sciences, Associate Professor
| -Sarmurzina Raushan Gaisievna, Dr. Sci. -Uvaliev Timur Yumashevich, Candidate of Chemical Sciences. -Karymbaev Bakhtygerey Mutigullovich -Fomenko Sergey Mikhailovich, Candidate of Chemical Sciences |
| 6. Energy industry | Valery Zhiltsov
| -Iskakov Bisembay Mamaevich, Doctor of Physics and Mathematics, Professor. -Koshumbaev Marat Bulatovich, Dr. Sci. -Batyrshayeva Gulmira Sayabekovna, Candidate of Technical Sciences |
| 7. Oil and gas industry | ||
The purpose of the research is to create an information basis for the formation and adjustment of science, technology and innovation policy.
In the course of research work was carried out to analyze trends in global industrial-innovative development and identify the main technological mega-trends, including the definition of technological megatrends, problems and needs that will affect the future development of Kazakhstan, analysis and trends in technological development in the seven above industries in the world, analysis and trends in the development of industries. Visions, goals and objectives of scientific and technological development of Kazakhstan until 2020 are given. To determine the key products and services for the country for the period up to 2020 in seven areas were prepared and conducted Delphi survey, according to which the list of products and services by degree of importance.
Studies were conducted to identify priority industries based on the grouping of products and services in the technological field according to the criterion of the greatest socio-economic effect, SWOT analysis, construction of a graph of the probability of success of products (services), technology tree, technological analysis and BMO analysis according to the criteria of technology assessment. The result of research in all seven areas was the definition of critical technologies for the period up to 2020.
Below, in order to save the Internet resource of the website of the National Academy of Sciences under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the results of foresight studies from the stage of SWOT analysis in priority areas are given.
- SWOT analysis of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats;
- chart of probability of success of key products;
- technology tree was built and technologies were analyzed;
- technology analysis and construction of technology analysis tables;
- BMO (Bruce-Merrifield-Ohe) analysis of technologies.
- SWOT analysis of scientific and technological development of Kazakhstan; scientific and information support of the mining and metallurgical complex was carried out;
- priority problems and thematic directions of research works on mining and metallurgy were determined;
- the dynamics of R&D on the development of mining and metallurgy was built;
- research and other organizations that have carried out R&D on mining problems were identified;
- vision, goals and objectives of scientific and technological development of Kazakhstan until 2020 were defined;
- key products and services for Kazakhstan for the period up to 2020 were identified;
- a technology tree was built;
- BMO analysis was carried out according to the criteria of technology assessment;
- critical technologies for the period up to 2020 were identified.
- SWOT analysis of scientific and technological development of Kazakhstan;
- vision, goals and objectives of scientific and technological development of Kazakhstan until 2020 were defined;
- key products and services for Kazakhstan for the period up to 2020 were identified;
- the graph of probability of success of products (services) was built; a technology tree was built;
- technological analysis and construction of technology analysis tables; BMO (Bruce-Merrifield-Ohe) analysis of technologies was carried out;
- critical technologies for the period up to 2020 were identified.
- SWOT analysis of scientific and technological development of Kazakhstan and the industry “Machine Building”;
- vision, goals and objectives of scientific and technological development of Kazakhstan until 2020 were defined;
- key products and services for Kazakhstan for the period up to 2020 were identified;
- the graph of probability of success of products (services) was built; a technology tree was built;
- technological analysis was carried out;
- critical technologies for the period up to 2020 were identified.
- Kazakhstani experience of foresight research in the field of chemical industry was studied;
- grouping of promising types of chemical products by sub-branches of the chemical industry was built;
- SWOT-analysis of the chemical industry;
- SWOT-analysis of inorganic chemistry;
- SWOT-analysis of organic chemistry;
- SWOT analysis of the chemical industry;
- plotted the probability of success of key products;
- built technology trees and conducted technology analysis;
- conducted BMO (Bruce-Merrifield-Ohe) analysis of technologies.
- SWOT — analysis of scientific and technological development of Kazakhstan in the field of energy;
- vision, goals and objectives of scientific and technological development of Kazakhstan until 2020 were defined;
- key products and services for Kazakhstan for the period up to 2020 were identified;
- critical technologies for the period up to 2020 were identified;
- the result of BMO analysis of technologies in the field of energy was obtained;
- Bubble diagram of success potential (probability of success) of technologies in the field of energy.
- SWOT analysis of the industry and key technologies.